BLOGIN BETS 31/10/20

This week’s accumulator pick is £10 @6/1

– DORTMUND 4/11 (Away v Arminia Bielefeld. Saturday KO 14:30)

– CHELSEA 8/15 (Away v Burnley. Saturday KO 15:00)

INTER 3/10 (Home v Parma. Saturday KO 17:00)

LIVERPOOL 4/11 (Home v West Ham. Saturday KO 17:30)

MILAN 4/6 (Away v Udinese. Sunday KO 11:30)

CONFIDENCE: 7/10

OVERVIEW: There’s a real European Super League feel about this week’s accumulator. 5 top sides, all strong favourites, selected from Europe’s best divisions. What could possibly go wrong this Halloween?!

It’s the first time in a while I’ve picked matches spread over Saturday and Sunday, we haven’t had much luck sticking to Saturdays so we are mixing it up again. One thing to note is the line would actually be wrapped up very early on Sunday, the Milan kick off time has an insane 11:30AM slot. Granted we were undone by an early start last time out but, hey-ho, we are a glutton for punishment and Milan are one of the world’s form sides.

So here we go.

PICKS: Dortmund have quietly gone about their business in the Bundesliga since defeat at Augsburg early on, winning their last 4 matches. They travel to struggling Bielefeld who have only won one of their opening 5 games, losing their last 3. AWAY WIN

Chelsea have been a mixed bag so far this season, either inspired or indifferent. We hope for the former as they go to Burnley, a team who haven’t won in the Premier League since January, losing 4 of their opening 5 matches this campaign. The return of Hakim Ziyech for Chelsea should give the blues a big lift. AWAY WIN.

Inter have started this seasons Serie A campaign with 3 wins from 5 with their only defeat coming in the derby against in form Milan. Parma on the other hand have only picked up 1 solitary victory, losing 3 of their matches. Home advantage and general gulf in class should be the difference here. HOME WIN.

Other than the freak 7-2 reverse at Aston Villa, Liverpool’s form has been pretty ominous. Despite not being at their best, they have been pretty ruthless results wise and I would expect that to continue at home to West Ham. The hammers have had some decent results of late but travelling to Anfield is different kettle of fish. HOME WIN.

Milan are now a mighty 30 matches unbeaten in all competitions which stretches back to March, 22 of which have been victories. They are undoubtedly Europe’s form side and will look to cement their place at the top of Serie A with a win at Udinese. The hosts have only managed 1 win in their 5 games, losing the other 4. Zlatan Ibrahimovic continues to do the business, currently the league’s top goalscorer at 39 years of age. Fancy him to WRAP UP THE ACCA early Sunday.

BLOGIN FANTASY FOOTBALL (Gameweek 7)

OVERVIEW: I love it when a good plan comes together. The aim of game week 6 was to climb to the summit of the office league and it was objective complete✅ In a week that averaged 48 points, the lads managed 71 which was an excellent return. The only slight blot on the sheet was new signing Dominic Calvert-Lewin only scoring 1 point. To be honest, it was written in the fantasy football stars this one, he’s been the league’s hot striker in every other game week, typical.

Talking of disasters, this brings us to the main question I want to ask this week.

WHATS THE WORST BONUS CHIP YOU’VE EVER PLAYED?

Here’s mine – I used the worst bench boost in the history of Fantasy Premier League last week. It was an absolutely bonkers play which had no impact whatsoever and yielded NIL points. I thought there was some logic to it at the time and I alluded to it last week’s blog but sometimes you just get caught up in a web of tactics, lies, stats and mind games and on reflection, rash decisions are made. What made the decision worse was that 3 of my bench players haven’t made an appearance this season, what exactly was I thinking. Fortunately, No damage done on this occasion but that’s a chip gone going forward.

Sweeping that mishap firmly under the carpet and looking ahead to game week 7, we have yet another Friday night fixture to kick things off. Last week’s caught out a few managers like the clocks going back and my back room staff have informed me the same could happen again this week. After all, silence is golden.

Liverpool at home to West Ham and Spurs home to Burnley have to be the potential scoring fixtures over the weekend. In terms of my squad, the matches look pretty decent which could play into my hands. Again, the fantasy stars may have something to say about that but we’re quietly confident.

THIS WEEK’S PICKS: Pep Guardiola named an unchanged team for the first time in 3 years earlier this week and yours truly was inches away from doing the same until Ross Barkley for Klich became an option, couldnt help myself.

Positives of this transfer

1. It’s free and no -4’s.

2. Barkley may become the dark horse of the season if, big if, Villa can continue there early season form.

3. Klich wasn’t returning enough so we turn the card.

The negatives – I can’t find any so here’s hoping.

Elsewhere, the captain dilemma is strong. Son, Kane and Mané were all big contenders but I’ve gone for the latter at home to West Ham. Our 3 TOON players remain in situ. They have a decent chance of picking up more points when they welcome Everton to St.James’ park for another round of BRUCE BALL.

BALL DOWN AND PLAY LADS.

BLOGIN BETS 24/10/20 – £100 Challenge (Stage 5)

STAGE 5

MILLWALL & DONCASTER EACH TO SCORE 1+ GOALS 8/13

  • STAKE: £55.69
  • RETURNS: £89.96

OVERVIEW: I’ve had a few messages about when the £100 challenge would continue, it’s been a while since we completed stage 4. As we are now so close to the target I’ve been agonising over the right bet to take us forward but I think I’ve finally found that bet.

This bet won’t take us to exactly £100 but will leave us pretty darn close so one more stage will be required to get to the magic target. However £89.96 is nothing to be sniffed at considering we started with a measly £10. Pulling out that point is perfectly fine if people so wish.

So, Stage 5. All we require is for Millwall and Doncaster to score a goal each in their respective matches this afternoon. Millwall, who is sit in the Championship playoff spots, are home to relegation candidates Barnsley and have amassed 10 goals in their last 6 league matches. Doncaster entertain Crewe who sit just below mid table in league 1. Tellingly, Doncaster have also managed 10 goals in their last 6 league matches. I expect both teams to win never mind get 1 goal each.

Remember, that’s all we need, a goal from each side. What a chance to complete this stage and be within touching distance of £100 mark. GOALS GOALS GOALS.

BLOGIN BETS 24/10/20

This week’s accumulator is £10 @11/1

MAN CITY 4/11 (Away v West Ham. KO 12:30

CAMBRIDGE UNITED 1/1 (Home v Bolton. KO 15:00)

MARSEILLE 8/5 (Away v Lorient. KO 16:00)

INTER 3/10 (Away v Genoa. KO 17:00)

LIVERPOOL 2/9 (Home v Sheff United. KO 20:00)

CONFIDENCE: 7/10

OVERVIEW: Before we get into the nitty gritty of breaking down this week’s accumulator, I actually can’t believe how high the odds for this line is. 11/1 is a superb price and I don’t see any reason why this one wouldn’t have a decent chance.

As usual, we have the same carry on, £10 on 5 teams all to win spread right across Saturday, with no two fixtures having the same kick off time. The key fixture for me is meat of the sandwich, the middle game, Marseille away at Lorient. That’s the banana skin here but again, and i will go into more depth later, I see no reason to suggest they can’t pick up the 3 points and the green tick we need.

Obviously another thing to note is there’s an early kick off on the line as well which is usually a no go, but I think it’s a strong enough favourite not to be a worry. So here we go.

PICKS: Man City have actually made an indifferent start to the season by their imperious standards but an early marker away at West Ham is exactly what they need. Talisman Sergio Aguero is now back fit and could be the key in putting together a run of form. AWAY WIN.

Cambridge United are flying in League 2. 4 wins in a row and top of the table, they host a Bolton side who haven’t won in 5 and sit 5 from the bottom of England’s professional pyramid. HOME WIN.

As mentioned earlier, this is the big game of the line in my opinion. A quick glance on paper suggests both Marseille and opponents Lorient aren’t in great form, however on closer inspection, Marseille haven’t been losing games with draws being the order of the day as well as playing some of the top sides along the way. They haven’t lost in 6 league matches and were very impressive against Bordeaux last time out picking up a nice 3-1. What’s more, Les Olympiens have only lost twice in 13 in this fixture so the omens are good. AWAY WIN.

Inter will be looking for a routine win at Genoa. If they are to have serious title aspirations, this is the type of bread and butter fixture they need to be winning. Conte’s side have good reason to be confident, they have won the last 4 matches against their hosts all to nil amassing an average of 4 goals. Genoa haven’t scored a goal since the opening day and the firepower of Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez should be too much for them at the other end. AWAY WIN.

Liverpool actually haven’t won for 3 Premier League games. They have the perfect chance at home to Sheff United who sit second bottom of table and are yet to win in 5 matches played – losing 4. I have no doubts that this match will WRAP UP THE ACCA should we make it this far.

BLOGIN FANTASY FOOTBALL (Gameweek 6)

OVERVIEW: Another cracking week of fantasy football. 71 points added to the total and maintaining 2nd place in the table – only 4 points off the summit.

Kane and Son, as expected, were the bags men. 13 points for Son and 32 for captain Kane as the skipper selection finally hit the target, yielding a lucrative return. Elsewhere, Maguire bagged at Newcastle which was a bonus. I would have taken him out last week had I not needed more pressing changes in other areas.

Looking ahead to game week 6, first thing to point out is the massive silent treatment in motion. We have a Friday night fixture to kick off the round, do my fellow managers know this crucial bit of information? Do they know any changes/transfers must be in place 24 hours early? I hope not, my tactics are set after a positive week of training and any marginal gain is welcome.

Fixture wise, Liverpool at home to Sheffield United has got to be a points fancy along with Spurs away at Burnley. Captain pick could be vital again as we look to climb to the up to top spot.

TEAM SELECTION: For the first time in a while we are starting a game week with no minus points. I’ve only made one transfer but it’s a massive one. Calvert-Lewin, the Premier League’s top scorer, comes in for Rhian Brewster. I didn’t realise I had the funds available to do this so it’s been a big mistake on my part not making this change week’s earlier. It improves my overall squad and I can now make at least one substitute without having to rely on a transfer. Not only that, we are entering wildcard time territory so should it not work out as planned we can revert and overhaul the whole team in the coming weeks. I mentioned last week that it was extremely rare to be 100% happy with your team, well this week I’m content and quite optimistic. That usually means a nightmare of a round incoming.

Ive gone with an adventurous 3 pronged attack, Calvert-Lewin comes in along side Wilson and Kane. My only quandary was who the Everton hitman was replacing. It was going to be Klich of Leeds but it turns out Willian is a slight injury doubt for Arsenal so it’s he who makes way. HOWEVER, big HOWEVER – BENCH BOOST PLAYED, let’s hope Willian is passed fit and we can score all round. It’s actually the first time this season I’ve changed my formation and it feels good to have that extra forward in the side.

Mané is this week’s skipper, with Kane the vice and its 6 weeks in a row for triple toon players despite underwhelming Bruce Ball on Tyneside.

WORK THE CHANNELS LADS.

BLOGIN BETS 17/10/20

This week’s accumulator pick is £10 @12/1

– CHELSEA 1/2 (Home v Southampton. KO 15:00)

CAMBRIDGE UNITED 11/8 (Away v Scunthorpe. KO 15:00)

BRISTOL CITY 13/8 (Away v Barnsley. KO 15:00)

JUVENTUS 4/11 (Away v Crotone. KO 19:45)

CONFIDENCE: 6/10

OVERVIEW: Another week and another accumulator to keep tabs on. This time round all the fixtures are on Saturday (today) Thought process being we could possibly do another daft one tomorrow should we have a winner today.

The main thing to note on this line is the high odds for only 4 selections. I’ve done the extensive research and can’t see any reason why this wouldn’t have a good chance. The slightly lower confidence rating is the fact there must be a something to make this price is so high but I’m yet to find it. Heres hoping nothing has slipped through the net of chance.

Also, look at the range of teams. We go from the elite, elegant end of Serie A to blood and guts league 2 in only four selections. Superb stuff and something for everyone.

PICKS: Chelsea have made an indifferent start to the Premier League season. However this does not include their home form which has been very impressive. The blues have won 9 of their last 10 matches at Stamford bridge with the only failure being against champions Liverpool. Bread and butter matches like these are crucial if they want to be classed as serious title contenders. HOME WIN.

Cambridge United sit pretty in 2nd position of League 2 after 5 matches having scored 10 and only conceding 3 in that time. Opponents Scunthorpe, on the other hand, have only picked up 4 points from their first 5 and languish down in 20th. AWAY WIN.

Bristol City have flown out of the championship blocks winning all their 4 matches so far. What more they play a Barnsley side who have yet to win and have only managed 1 goal in the process. We’re going with form here for sure. AWAY WIN.

Juventus are Juventus, they win matches. Despite being without talisman Christiano Ronaldo, they will have enough to beat bottom side Crotone who have lost all 3 matches in Serie A so far by at least 3 goals. Should be a comfortable one tonight to WRAP UP THE ACCA.

BLOGIN FANTASY FOOTBALL (Gameweek 5)

OVERVIEW: Everyone’s worst nightmare – The international break. The by-monthly nuisance and proverbial pointless bore fest is finally over. I actually couldn’t remember what happened in the last gameweek it feels that long ago. Years passed, a cold dark world, the longest of winters. Did England win? REALITY = 2 weeks.

Anyway, back to business. I’ve checked, recapped and debriefed. 58 points in gameweek 4 was a decent return but again, the captain selection again cost me huge points. For what feels like the millionth week in a row my skipper has produced only 4 points. Of course, Kane and Wilson had 16 points a piece and neither had the armband. If I can buck this annoying trend, a huge points week is incoming.

This week’s fixtures don’t look too bad, Spurs at home to West Ham looks a point scorer but again, the round doesn’t really suit my team. The wildcard was a tempting proposition but lessons learnt from last season suggest it’s still to early to be making that sort of rash decision. The plan is to ride it out a few weeks/months longer and unleash fury around Christmas time when the double game week’s start to kick in. Par for the course is ok for now, it helps when you’re nicely placed in your respective league and not having to force the issue.

This leads me on to the question I really want to ask this week. Are you ever truly happy with your team? 99 times out of 100 the answer is NO and that’s completely fine. I make my changes on a weekly basis and I always feel initially content. A couple of hours later I’ll look again and begin the question the decisions I’ve made, question myself, question life itself.

On past experience, this uncertainty can lead to car crash chip playing and endless negative transfer points. Before you know you’re -16 before a ball is kicked on Saturday. The stars have truly aligned with a blue moon if all the fixtures fall into place to suit your team, it’s extremely rare. What I’ve discovered over the last year or 2 is to accept this and make the most out of where your team will score points that week rather than try to compensate on areas it probably won’t. Obviously this is through trying to utilise your free weekly transfer and your essential captains pick. There’s nothing worse than looking at the week’s up and coming fixtures and realising 2 of your defenders are both away to Manchester City or Liverpool. This is part and parcel of the season rollercoaster and it happens to everyone at some stage. Yes it’s probably going to mean you don’t gain many points in those positions that particular week but, rather than making knee-jerk changes, I now try to see where the others in the team can make up for the likely deficit. Also remembering, those hypothetical defenders away at city only have to play there once a season and they are probably a usual and decent point source to your team. Why take them out for one week when the likelihood is you’ll need them back in the following? Taking a one week hit isn’t always a bad thing. It saves wasting your season-changing bonus cards or taking a minus x amount of points in often unnecessary transfers. Food for thought.

THIS WEEKS PICKS: As mentioned last time out, my squad isn’t strong enough to make substitutions so it’s another 2 transfers this week meaning a -4.

Out comes Aubameyang who is away at Man City and in comes Son who is home to West Ham, a no brainer. The 2nd change is slightly more forced. Kevin De Bruyne is a slight injury doubt and with Pep’s rotation system it’s not worth taking the risk so Mané comes back in after recovering from COVID.

It was a toss up between Kane and Son for the armband but I’ve gone with the former. On previous week’s captain run, it’ll probably be tails when looking for heads but, we are due a luck change so fingers crossed.

Maguire is lucky to retain his place. Only lack of budget and not wanting more negative transfer points has saved him.

AND STILL, we have 3 toon players in the mix and this makes me happy. I fancy Wilson and Saint-Maximin to cause Man U all sorts of problems this weekend.

FROM THE FIRST WHISTLE LADS.

GAMEWEEK 5 squad

BLOGIN BETS 10/10/20 (Football League Double Chance Dafty)

This week’s accumulator is £10 @5/1

IPSWICH & DRAW 8/15 (Away v Blackpool. KO 15:00)

WIGAN & DRAW 8/13 (Away v Crewe. KO 15:00)

MORECAMBE & DRAW 4/6 (Away v Oldham. KO 15:00)

NEWPORT COUNTY & DRAW 4/11 (Away v Cambridge United)

CONFIDENCE: 6/10

OVERVIEW: It’s the DREADED international break which is a right nuisance. This means the week’s accumulator is a bit different but actually much of the same. Different in the fact it’s 4 random selections not based on research or knowledge but simply, league position and gut feeling. The same as in the format. £10, 4 teams looking for the match result. What this line lacks in knowledge, it makes up for in the fact that each selection has a double chance. What’s more is that all the matches are Saturday 3 o clock kick offs, a rare event in my usual accumulator picks.

I’m not going to go through each team like usual and give my reasons for the selections because all the picks were decided on a quick glance at the respective League 1 and 2 tables and pure gut feeling. What I will say is we have two big clubs on the line in Wigan and Sir Bobby Robson’s team Ipswich. We also have Newport county who I was pretty impressed with when they faced Newcastle in the league cup and, at present, they sit top of League 2. Selecting Morecambe was simply a case of 2nd top v 3rd bottom and as they say the league table does not lie.

Remember as these selections are double chance with a draw in each game good also enough to LAND THE ACCA so, weirdly, I’m quietly confident.

LOADS OF TACKLE LADS

BLOGIN BETS 8/10/20 – £100 Challenge (Stage 4)

STAGE 4

ENGLAND v WALES OVER 2.5 GOALS 13/20

  • STAKE: £33.75
  • RETURNS: £55.69

OVERVIEW: Barcelona and Seville did not disappoint in stage 3 and we role on to 4 tonight, albeit a few days late. I was hoping to have the £100 challenge wrapped up by now but the international break put a dampener on the fixture list and enforced a couple of days break.

Looking ahead to tonight’s stage 4 match, I think we’ve got another corker on our hands and one that should take us to step 5. England host Wales in a friendly and all we require is 3 goals in the game to progress. The shackles should be off the players but the game will still contain that competitive edge given the rivalry between the two sides. Also, given the form or messers Kane, Sterling and potential debutant Dominic Calvert-Lewin, what’s to say this stage won’t be complete by half time.

Despite drawing 0-0 last time out, England have managed 18 goals in their last 5 international matches, an average well over the required amount tonight, not forgetting the potential of the Welsh finding the net which would be just as welcome.

GO FOR GOAL.

BLOGIN BETS 4/10/20 – £100 challenge (Stage 3)

STAGE 3

• BARCELONA v SEVILLA – BOTH TEAMS TO HAVE 1+ CORNERS IN EACH HALF 1/2

  • STAKE: £22.50
  • RETURNS: £33.75

OVERVIEW: Arsenal wrapped up stage 2 with a comfortable victory over Sheffield United. The running total is now up to £22.50 so slowly we make our way toward the magic £100 mark.

Moving onto stage 3 straight away I’ve found a little corker in Spain tonight. Barcelona host Seville and all we are looking for is for each team to be awarded a corner in each half. Barcelona have had 11 corners in their first 2 La Liga matches while Seville have had 9 so this sounds simple enough. These 2 sides are amongst Spain’s most attacking sides and at 1/2 this is exactly what we need to keep this challenge going.

A CORNER A CORNER!